Spending on adult social services will rise by
around £4 billion in the next 20 years, according to a report
looking at the long-term future of the NHS.
Spending will rise from £6.4 billion in
2002-3 to between £10 and £11 billion in 2022-23, the
report by Derek Wanless to the Chancellor says.
The calculations are based on the present
baseline spend adjusted for population changes and changes in the
level of ill health.
The pre-Budget report by Wanless, who is a
former chief executive of National Westminster Bank, says:
“Demographic change and, in particular, the ageing of the
population is a more important cost pressure for social care than
for health care.”
The figures are underestimates, the report
says, because the predictions do not take into consideration any
additional increase in the level of resources required to deliver
high quality social care or more imaginative planning of the whole
of social care.