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The care home sector will be set for a shake-up if the European Union ends the option for UK staff to work more than 48 hours a week.
The European working time directive states a maximum working week, (averaged out over a year), should be 48 hours. Currently, UK staff can opt out and work for longer if they and their employer agree.

Last month MEPs voted to phase out the opt-out over three years. Tony Blair has promised to fight to keep it. EU employment ministers meet on 3 June to discuss the issue again.

The arguments for and against the move are polarised: unions say UK workers already clock up the longest hours in Europe and are coerced into working longer because of fears they will lose their jobs. Employers' groups believe it will take away vital flexibility, and will increase overheads.

The Employers' Organisation for local government last year surveyed social services directors on what impact scrapping the opt-out would have. It found that in some areas it would be minimal while in others it could be "very significant".

Heads of the main care home associations say its impact will be felt in the sector.

Sheila Scott, chief executive of the National Care Homes Association, says most employers agree that 48 hours' work a week is enough and that those who worked long hours one week wouldn't the next.

However, she believes problems will arise where care home staff have more than one job.

"People working in the NHS do shifts in care homes to get extra money. You can't keep track of that. We will have to look at employers' legal responsibilities," she says.

Scott adds that she will be advising members to put the onus on recruitment agencies to keep tabs on how many hours agency staff work.

Martin Green, chief executive of the English Community Care Association, believes the workforce shortage in the sector would be exacerbated by the change. "You can't provide the same levels of care without more staff. It's not only about paying for more staff but we'll also have to increase our investment in training."

But Frank Ursell, head of the Registered Nursing Home Association, says the main losers will be employees who will miss out on overtime. "People who are working more than 48 hours are doing it because they want to earn more."