Margaret Hodge

Like a football manager who has just received the chairman's proverbial vote of confidence, Margaret Hodge must be wondering if she is living on borrowed time, writes Mark Hunter.

With the prime minister expressing "full confidence" in his beleaguered children's minister, Hodge's immediate future is probably secure. But she needs only to cast her eye over the back benches and junior ministerial ranks for a reminder of how quickly fortunes can change.

Stephen Byers and Clare Short received Tony Blair's full support shortly before casting themselves into the political wilderness.  

Certainly the conservative press and Tory health and education spokesperson Tim Yeo are unlikely to halt their calls for Hodge's resignation just yet. Friendly fire from the likes of former Labour deputy leader Roy Hattersley, who told GMTV that Hodge would be better off returning to the backbenches, will also add to her discomfort.  

Nevertheless, as long as Hodge can avoid any further mishaps and has the political mettle to tough it out, the worst is probably over. Her humiliating apology in open court and £10,000 donation to charity appear to have halted the threat of a libel action from Demetrious Panton, the man she branded "extremely disturbed" in a letter to BBC chairman, Gavyn Davies.

Nor should Hodge be unduly troubled by the original allegations, that during her leadership of Islington Council between 1982 and 1992 she failed to act on warnings that children in the council's care were being abused. These claims have been well aired and rebuffed long before this most recent crisis.  

Hodge will also be keen to get back to the important work that is to be done within her ministry. Pushing through the reforms contained in the green paper 'Every Child Matters' and battling for funds in the next comprehensive spending review will require a strong hand on the tiller. If Hodge is to provide that leadership, it is important that she quickly begins to regain her political credibility.  

If she is looking for clues to the secret of political survival, then Hodge could do worse than examine how some of her colleagues have recently fared when the press pack came barking at their doors:  

* Geoff Hoon - probably the only politician currently above Hodge in the 'whose-for-the-chop-next' stakes. As defence secretary Hoon's political future will depend on the conclusion of the Hutton Inquiry into the death of Dr David Kelly.

Hoon's survival up to now has probably been due to his unflinching loyalty and ability to attract flak that might otherwise have been destined for Tony Blair. 

* Stephen Byers - hung on desperately to his job as transport secretary after his spin doctor Jo Moore caused a furore by sending an e-mail suggesting 11 September was a good day to bury bad news. He finally quit in May last year, after months of damaging leaks from his department and a high profile spat with its communications director Martin Sixsmith. The Byers affair is an abject lesson in the importance of keeping your civil servants onside. 

* Estelle Morris - resigned as education secretary in October last year, admitting she wasn't really up to the job. Media intrusion finally took its toll on Morris after a succession of education crises including the A-level fiasco and the failure of literacy and numeracy standards to reach government targets. Morris' experience shows that ministerial office is not for the faint-hearted. Nevertheless, the dignity and honesty of her departure probably hastened her return to government earlier this year as minister for the arts.  

* Robin Cook and Clare Short - if you are going to resign on principle, it's not a good idea to change your mind. Foreign secretary Cook's swift rejection of the Iraq war as "without international agreement or domestic support" has left him well placed for a political comeback should there be a shift of power away from the Blairite camp. Short's on-off-on-again prevarications simply made her look foolish. 

* Peter Mandelson - the undisputed king of the political comeback. After not one but two humiliating resignations Mandelson once again finds himself back within Tony Blair's inner circle as the chief strategist planning the next election. The secret of Mandelson's resilience is something of a mystery, although sheer front may have something to do with it. Both of Mandelson's resignation letters deny doing anything "wrong or improper".  

According to political analyst John McTernan, who writes a column for 'Community Care', neither Tony Blair nor Margaret Hodge looks likely to yield to the media pressure for Hodge to quit. 

"The prime minister has made it very clear that he picks and chooses his ministers and Hodge has, by all accounts, been an excellent minister for children. There's absolutely no doubt that she retains the confidence of the prime minister. So if your boss is not going to sack you and you're not going to quit, then there is no reason for you to go." 

The likelihood of Hodge succumbing to the baying of a hostile media, also looks slim in the short term. She has a reputation as a hard-nosed, confident and determined minister who has impeccable Blairite credentials at a time when the prime minister needs all the friends he can get. In a government where the key to survival is loyalty and an understanding "not to embarrass Tony", she should be well placed to keep her job for now. Nevertheless, we await the next reshuffle with interest.