Could the Welsh green paper scupper social care reform?

The Welsh Assembly does not have the power to change a number of elements which may need reform such as benefits and taxation. But consultation on the Welsh social care green paper is not set to close until February 2010 which seems to leave the government only a few months to implement any reforms.

It's difficult to imagine any large scale reform of anything when the government is seeking a fourth term in office because to put bold proposals on the table may well open it up to rabid criticism, justified or not.

They could possibly exempt Wales from any changes and let them decide on how to do this themselves. This seems even less likely given the constitutional implications of devolving the necessary levels of taxation power to make it work to the Welsh Assembly (particularly given Wales' historical lack of appetite for devolution compared with Scotland).

From this point I can see only two options:
-    The national government presses on with reform regardless of the opinions of Welsh people.
-    Reform of social care system is shelved until after the next election.

I don't think either of these will deliver a thoroughly satisfactory reform of social care which all citizens can get behind and support in the same way they support NHS.