Happy New Year! I returned to work today to see social care at the top of the news headlines.
Social care's great and good have written an open letter to the prime minister (in the Telegraph) urging that he and his fellow party leaders deliver on social care funding reform this year to put an end to indignity and isolation for older people, dependence for disabled people and the denial of life opportunities for carers.
It's great to see social care on the front pages and at the top of news bulletins, and you cannot fault the timing: this is, of course, the year in which the government publishes a White Paper setting out how it plans to reform social care, including its funding. Moreover, cross-party talks are due to start.
Before Christmas, we predicted that the government would not deliver on social care funding reform, specifically that it would not implement the proposals of the Dilnot commission to put a £35,000 cap on lifetime care costs for all because of the £1.7bn bill.
An optimist might argue that we made the wrong call, and that the festive period showed that both government and opposition were up for making social care funding reform work.
On this line, Labour has shown how much of a priority it puts on social care by putting out research over Christmas showing how much charges for home care and other community services had risen in the past couple of years (6% for home care). Releasing the research, shadow minister for care and older people Liz Kendall urged Cameron to engage in serious cross-party talks on reform. The positive narrative would also point to action from government in the shape of a £170m injection of cash into social care services for people discharged from hospital to manage winter pressures over the coming months.
This money - one-tenth of the cost of Dilnot - was found from Department of Health savings but meeting the full cost of Dilnot is a call that only the Treasury (and Number 10) can make. Moreover, whatever the pros and cons of the Dilnot package it doesn't, in itself, purport to solve all or most of the problems outlined in today's letter to Cameron.
This is because Dilnot is about expanding the existing publicly-funded social care system to cover self-funders (who would benefit from the cap); it is not about filling the funding gap in the existing system (put at £2bn to £4bn), which manifests itself in rising charges and eligibility criteria, squeezes on providers and inadequate quality.
This £4bn-6bn black hole (Dilnot plus funding gap) is not the whole story. As the government, councils and the sector know, the way social care operates needs fundamental reform through better integration with health and housing, more personalisation (in the widest sense) and more intelligent commissioning. This should generate efficiencies that would reduce the Dilnot plus funding gap black hole from £4-6bn a year to something less than this.
However, I very much doubt that even the reduced figure would be something the Treasury would stomach, particularly in the current economic climate.
That is why I remain a pessimist - though I would be beyond delighted to be proved wrong.

I've already been out and about meeting and speaking with care home managers and domiciliary care workers to get a feel for the issues and it's clear to me already that there's a lot of fantastic work being done in a very pressured funding climate.