New research published by the National Day Nursery Association suggests the government is in serious danger of shooting itself in the foot over its promise of free early education for three- and four-year-olds.
While few would disagree with the principle behind the entitlement, many day nurseries are opposed to the way it is being delivered (namely with insufficient financial backing) and warn that the situation will only get wose as the scheme is extended to 15 hours per week and possibly to two-year-olds too.
Almost three-quarters of the nurseries who responded to the NDNA's survey are not being paid the full cost of child care when delivering the free entitlement, with a third losing more than £5 per session.
Many nurseries believe the issue has the potential to threaten their very existence, while others warn they will have to withdraw from the scheme or pass the cost on to parents in the form of higher fees outside the free entitlement hours.
The result is surely an own-goal for a government supposedly committed to reducing inequality and child poverty: fewer providers available to deliver free early years at a time when the scheme is supposed to be expanding; and fewer parents able to afford extra hours of high quality child care outside the free entitlement hours.
The NDNA has called on the DfES to conduct a full and rigorous national review of the true costs of the entitlement. But it seems to me that we already have a fairly good idea of the shortfall. What we need to know now is what the government is going to do about it.