John's Weird World

More often we are hearing various terms bandied around in the media and some of them are not self-explanitory... one of these is 'Peak Oil'.  So last week I attended a York Greenspeak meeting which was all about this fascinating and very current subject.  I knew a bit about the theory that oil reserves are about half finished, but less about how this will affect us economically and socially.

Peak oil was suggested by Shell geologist Dr Marion King Hubbert in 1956 as he had worked out that the discovery and extraction of oil would follow a 'bell curve' distribution.  He accurately predicted peak US oil production (1970) and that world oil production would be somewhere about now, ie that we may be about to start the long period of reduced oil extraction.  Peak world oil discovery was 1964, which means that although there is probably more oil to be discovered, it isn't the 'easy to get' stuff and it will be smaller quantities, and more expensive to get out.  Meanwhile, world oil use continues to rise, as developing countries continue to develop and human populations continue to grow.  Published world oil reserves suggest that peak oil will be about 2030, but recently Shell has drastically reduced their reserve figures, suggesting that oil companies may have overstated their reserves (to boost confidence and share prices?).

So, we are heading for a situation with less available mineral oil, and this will affect us in a number of ways.  Firstly, scarcity drives prices up.  We are already experiencing this.  When the price of a barrel of oil goes up, it becomes more economically viable to extract oil out of 'unconventional' sources such as tar sands and oil shales, but these require more energy to get the oil out, so the price won't go down again.  Higher prices also mean that investment into alternatives such as hydrogen, biofuels, coal liquifaction and nuclear will go up.  But all of these alternatives have problems and knock-on issues... biofuels for instance are competing for finite arable land for food and biodiversity, the hydrogen economy depends on either electricity to split water or fossil gas to provide the hydrogen, and coal and gas both add carbon dioxide to the overloaded atmosphere.  The two greenest solutions to the coming energy crisis are energy efficiency and renewables from wind, sun, tides and hydro.

So how do we 'ordinary people' deal with this knowledge?  Well it would be responsible and prudent to reduce our energy use, by driving less and in smaller more efficient vehicles, by reducing energy use in the home by insulating, having more efficient appliances and switching them off when not in use, by reducing meat and dairy in our diets, by buying less and recycling more, by buying locally and in season... you know the score by now!  Unfortunately, we all know what we SHOULD do but are finding it very difficult to change.

Last week, researchers at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that Carbon Dioxide levels had hit a new record high, of 387 parts per million (ppm), as measured by their research outpost in Mauna Loa, Hawaii.  This may not mean a lot to people less obsessed by CO2 levels than me, but it is significant, since the NOAA people say that the rate of accumulation is increasing, and is over 2ppm greater each year.  This is the highest CO2 concentration for 650,000 years, a level that humans have never experienced before.  This means that in just 6 or 7 years, the level will rise to 400ppm, a theoretical 'line in the sand' over which many scientists think that our climate will descend into chaos and become much more unpredictable and violent.

On Sunday 24th February 2008 the world changed... or did it? Certainly there was a 'first'; a jet plane made a short trip with one of it's four engines running on biofuel. A Virgin Boeing 747 flew from Heathrow to Schiphol in Amsterdam using a mixture of coconut and babassu nut oil. Sir Richard Branson hailed this as the dawn of a new era but I don't think we're there yet. This 'new era' isn't going to be easy either.

Much as though the so-called 'mile high club' might be attractive to some people, joining it does involve getting on an aeroplane, which some of us do not want to do.... So I have joined the No Miles High Club, a pioneering initiative to reward people for not flying.

Last Wednesday (14th November 07) was the first World Responsible Tourism Day, not that most people would have noticed.

Some of you will have noticed that is 'Organic Fortnight', a time when producers and retailers celebrate and promote products grown without artificial fertilisers and pesticides... and hopefully persuade even more of us to choose to buy organic.

In my late teens and early 20's I was a regular 'paying punter' at Glastonbury Festival. Then I discovered how I could get in for free! I joined the 'Green Litter Picker Crew' and helped keep the site clean and sort recyclables from rubbish, then I worked with Network Recycling specifically on the recyclables. Although I haven't been to Glasto for years, I've been a volunteer at greener festivals ever since. I've just come back from the Big Green Gathering which is held on an organic farm in the Mendip Hills near Cheddar Gorge. For nearly a decade I've been a composter at the BGG, recycling large volumes of catering waste from the cafes using waste wood, lopped hedging and twigs, cardboard and straw, layered with tens of kilos of fruit and veg peelings and the unsold cooked food which can't be kept beyond the day it's made as there's rarely any refrigeration on site.