Green Man considers Peak Oil
More often we are hearing various terms bandied around in the media and some of them are not self-explanitory... one of these is 'Peak Oil'. So last week I attended a York Greenspeak meeting which was all about this fascinating and very current subject. I knew a bit about the theory that oil reserves are about half finished, but less about how this will affect us economically and socially.
Peak oil was suggested by Shell geologist Dr Marion King Hubbert in 1956 as he had worked out that the discovery and extraction of oil would follow a 'bell curve' distribution. He accurately predicted peak US oil production (1970) and that world oil production would be somewhere about now, ie that we may be about to start the long period of reduced oil extraction. Peak world oil discovery was 1964, which means that although there is probably more oil to be discovered, it isn't the 'easy to get' stuff and it will be smaller quantities, and more expensive to get out. Meanwhile, world oil use continues to rise, as developing countries continue to develop and human populations continue to grow. Published world oil reserves suggest that peak oil will be about 2030, but recently Shell has drastically reduced their reserve figures, suggesting that oil companies may have overstated their reserves (to boost confidence and share prices?).
So, we are heading for a situation with less available mineral oil, and this will affect us in a number of ways. Firstly, scarcity drives prices up. We are already experiencing this. When the price of a barrel of oil goes up, it becomes more economically viable to extract oil out of 'unconventional' sources such as tar sands and oil shales, but these require more energy to get the oil out, so the price won't go down again. Higher prices also mean that investment into alternatives such as hydrogen, biofuels, coal liquifaction and nuclear will go up. But all of these alternatives have problems and knock-on issues... biofuels for instance are competing for finite arable land for food and biodiversity, the hydrogen economy depends on either electricity to split water or fossil gas to provide the hydrogen, and coal and gas both add carbon dioxide to the overloaded atmosphere. The two greenest solutions to the coming energy crisis are energy efficiency and renewables from wind, sun, tides and hydro.
So how do we 'ordinary people' deal with this knowledge? Well it would be responsible and prudent to reduce our energy use, by driving less and in smaller more efficient vehicles, by reducing energy use in the home by insulating, having more efficient appliances and switching them off when not in use, by reducing meat and dairy in our diets, by buying less and recycling more, by buying locally and in season... you know the score by now! Unfortunately, we all know what we SHOULD do but are finding it very difficult to change.