By Mithran Samuel
Interesting interview in The Herald with head of Scotland's care regulator, the Care Commission, Jacquie Roberts, in which she emphasises how how much adult care services will have to change to deal with the demographic changes of the coming decades, particularly in rolling back institutional care.
She says continuing with current service configurations would, given the ageing population, mean building a 50-bed care home every two weeks for the next 20 years and having 40% of Scotland's school leavers entering social care to cope with rising demand.
Her answer, echoing arguments put forward south of the border, is more personalised care, preventive support in the community, and telecare, which is seemingly proving very successful in Scotland.
It's a compelling argument, but do we know for sure that personalised services in the community and efficiency are a marriage made in heaven?
The evaluation of the individual budget pilots in England found little difference in the care costs of people using IBs and those using conventional care, and said national implementation of IBs would require "substantial investment".
Meanwhile, market analyst Laing and Buisson predict a reversal in the long-term decline in the care home market in the UK as a result of demographic change.
And of course whatever happens over the next decade will be heavily influenced by the imperative to bring the public finances in Britain back into something approaching balance.
On the positive side, this could drive the innovation required to find models of care that provide good outcomes for service users and value for money, but, more negatively, could see the already high level of unmet need increase ever further.

It amazes me how naive our country is anyone with half a brain could have made predictions about the ageing population thirty years ago.
I am one of the 50's baby boom and what I want if my children are too busy and I'm on my own is a decent companion Robot who knows me well and is programmed to not only care for me but keep me entertained. The Robot could take me out when I wanted and put up with me saying the same thing three hundred times over and be very encouraging.
So come on Honda make my personalised Asimo for me with all my likes and dislikes.
As an Innovator developing AERO [Aspirations, Encouragement, Realism and Openness] with no cash, which is currently used with children. I believe it is time that the same philosophy is used with older people. Just because you are older [than what?] doesn't mean that you can't aspire.
I remember many years ago working with an 92 year old. My task was to discuss going home or residential care. She was quite happy to go into residential care but was really concerned about being bored and being stuck with people she didn't much want to be with. So we started to explore what she could do and have it written into her care plan. She, even just before coming into hospital painted pictures of animals from photographs and could still do it and they were brilliant . [It was her legs that didn't work] And so we wrote this into her care plan.
We really need to treat older people the way that we would want to be treated.
So Asimo's cousin I'm looking forward to meeting you cos my children will be off exploring something or other I expect.
Every person who receives support, whether provided by statutory services or funded by themselves, will be empowered to shape their own lives and the services they receive in all care settings.
I completely agree with what Rachel Bramble has said, and the way she ends her comment is excellent i.e. we need to treat older people the way we would want to be treated.